C kp 150 - Insights making better decisions

This episode, 150, which is basically a meta-episode of portions of the best previous episodes about decision making. It is a real pain to work through. There are just too many good nuggets. I am basically pausing every 30 seconds to try to link the ideas together.

At 13:00 the guest talks about mental models. He has a technically inspired definition in his book: C wiki Belief–desire–intention_software_model ^mental-model

At 24:00 Watson made Sherlock Holmes better

At 25:00 they talk about how betting improves your decision making

At 28:00 once she started thinking about how Eric was going to ask her about things, she started self critiquing a lot more. She talks about being a very opinionated person, and about eventually becoming her own fact check her because she realized she should. She realized that she would exaggeration for effect

At 30:00 she talks about tilt.

tilt or tilting means, in poker, that you've let your emotions affect your judgment. ^9b0b09

At 35:00 hot and cold decision making

At 36:00 how can I be mindful of how my emotions are affecting my decision making?

At 37:00 identify the emotion, understand why you're feeling it. Very similar to the idea from meditation of seeing your thoughts garden

At 39:00 Shane asked how have your thoughts on something changed over time and the guy answers that shit now values fast decision making more than before.

At 42:00 the CEO of stripe talks about how he is now trying to make fewer decisions. He either wants to push them down to the domain experts, or he recognizes that there's some kind of epiphenomenon which causes him to need to make the decision. He also talks about how he is tasking the various organizations and his company to establish long-term metrics and mission statements in order to help them guide their thinking.

It reminds me of person - Derek Sivers and how he paid down and they need to continually make decisions himself by spending the time whenever one of the decisions came up to help people understand his the thought process behind how he made the decision and also giving them the agency to solve the problems within a more loose bounds themselves.

At 46:40 person - Annie Duke talks about trying to find an objective probability of some thing, and how if you don't assign a probability then you are basically saying you are certain that something will or won't happen. But when you try to assign a probability instead... when you have a goal of getting to the objective probability, versus being right, then you will be more open to contrary evidence because you are simply information hungry.
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assigning a probability seems related to hypothesis articulation
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being more open to contrary evidence because you are simply information hungry

At 53:00 one way to gather the dissenting opinions is to do red team blue team. You also present each other's sides

5440 she talks about failure premortem