Razors
A razor is a rule of thumb that allows you to quickly eliminate unlikely explanations or simplify decision-making. The name comes from the idea of "shaving away" unnecessary assumptions.
Razors don't prove anything — they're heuristics for directing your attention. When you're overwhelmed by possible explanations, a razor helps you start with the most productive line of inquiry.
Razors on This Site
- Occam's Razor — among competing explanations, prefer the one with the fewest assumptions. The most famous razor, named after William of Ockham.
- Hanlon's Razor — don't attribute to malice what can be explained by confusion or incompetence. Essential for maintaining productive relationships.
Why Collect Razors?
Razors are the sharp edge of mental models. Where a model gives you a framework for thinking, a razor gives you a quick decision rule. They're especially useful under time pressure, when you need to make a judgment call without full information.
Probabilistic Thinking provides the theoretical foundation for why razors work: they're shortcuts that align with Base Rates. Most explanations really are simpler than they appear. Most people really aren't out to get you.